Category Archives: Canada

…on the Entrepreneurial State

With the next Canadian federal election less than a year away – and undesirables like Wayne Gretzky soon to be purged from the voter lists – I’ve been getting a lot more fundraising emails lately. As of mid-December I’d received nineteen in eighteen days. It was like a Christmas advent calendar, but in my email inbox! (Like a beleaguered Silician storekeeper, I paid my “protection money” and now they’re leaving me alone. :) )

Politicians are often derided for their short-term thinking, which is probably a fair criticism. If you ballpark an election cycle at roughly four years, newly-elected officials might take a year to learn the ropes, a couple years trying to be effective, and then a year trying to get re-elected. Judging by how successful those old Soviet and Chinese Five-Year Plans typically were, that might not be quite enough time…

The kind of decade-scale industrial policy used so effectively over the past half-century by Japan and South Korea (and Singapore… and Taiwan… and to an extent in Norway) typically occurred when these countries were dominated by one political party. This political stability may have allowed government and industry to set effective long-term plans without fear that a few years on, a new Prime Minister would reverse course on everything.

Of course, one-party dominance is no guarantee of long-term economic success – as evidenced by Mexico, parts of both the American South and South America, and … Alberta. As recent history shows, our neighbours would rather stay a Saudi prince’s whim away from economic catastrophe, than raise sales and income taxes to build up a treasury to buffer themselves from the ravages of the resource cycle. It’s as if they’d read Aesop’s Fable about the ant and the grasshopper, and concluded the grasshopper was the role model!

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Pondering a palatable pipeline…

I guest-hosted TWiE podcast episode 137 a few days ago, an episode devoted to the Alberta oil sands / tar sands. If you ask me (and I realize none of you have :) ) it’s well worth a listen!

The week’s guest was US energy analyst Robert Rapier, who had visited Fort McMurray on a Canadian government junket for journalists. He came back with a five-part essay on his experience, and some valuable, contextualizing factoids.

Shockingly, he showed data suggesting that the Alberta tar sands are now only slightly more greenhouse gas-intensive than “average” petroleum. (In other words, the emissions associated with turning the bitumen into usable oil, are only slightly higher than average.) Heavy oil extracted from California is actually worse!

This creates the situation where – for once – the Harper Government™ hadn’t drifted into fiction, in its years-long lobbying effort to prevent Europeans from labeling tar sands oil as a high-carbon fuel. I never saw that one coming.

Rapier spent time with the Pembina Institute as well, to try to get part of the other side of the story. For instance, though industry touts that it only uses one percent of the annual flow of the Athabasca river, seasonal variations are extreme; one percent of annual flow is equivalent to one-third of daily flow, at certain times of year. And while he wanted to visit nearby First Nations communities, that part of the visit got cancelled at the last minute. (Now, there’s the Harper Government™ I’ve come to know and love… to loathe.  :)  )

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British Columbia hits 1,000 EV’s (and gov’t drops support)

image of Tesla Model S’s at a rally, from Consumer Reports

 

British Columbians have now purchased more than 1,000 plug-in electric vehicles. Add in low-speed neighbourhood electric vehicles and owner conversions, and the number will be a bit higher.

As of Jan 31, 2014 Polk research (now a division of IHS) had tracked 912 plug-in electric vehicle registrations in BC, representing about 1/6 of all PHEV registrations in Canada to date. British Columbia has about 1/8 of Canada’s population, so the numbers are largely in line with what we’d expect from the demographics.

Polk’s data doesn’t include the Toyota Prius Plug-in, Ford C-Max Energi or Ford Fusion Energi, however. Vehicle registrations for these plug-ins, is lumped in with sales of the regular hybrid versions. And through the end of 2013, these three models enjoyed Canadian sales of 594 units.

Assuming that BC represented 1/6 of these sales (being 99 vehicles) then British Columbia’s plug-in population has hit four figures. At the end of January, sales would have been on the order of 912+99 = 1011. And that doesn’t include any Prius Plug-in, C-Max Energi or Fusion Energi sales in the province in January.

Add probable sales in February to the mix, and we should be comfortably above the 1,000-car mark.

As always, my spreadsheet tracking plug-in sales in Canada and the U.S., and other related data, is at: www.tinyurl.com/CanadaEVSales

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The 1-2-3’s of EV market share in the US

My article on the 1-2-3’s of electric vehicle adoption in the U.S. went up on GreenCarReports on the weekend. The commentary went through a title change – a procedure familiar to many famous writers, and many more of us unknown mediocrities. :)

About fifteen years after a publisher’s first impression of Jane Austen’s First Impressions was as negative as its heroine Elizabeth Bennet’s first impression of Mr. Darcy, she rewrote the title (and, oh yeah, parts of the book) in the trochaic verse style, giving us Pride and Prejudice. Which is not to be confused with the similarly-titled literary masterpiece, Pride and Prejudice and Zombies.  :)

The article involved breaking U.S. vehicle sales in 2013 by make and model, done by Tim Cain at GoodCarBadCar.net, then looking up manufacturer’s suggested retail price for each and every one – done by me. After that, it was a straight-forward (albeit time-consuming) matter of making macros to do my bidding – in this case, slicing up the sales statistics by price point and vehicle type.

The 1-2-3 in my original title referred to the fact that, if one excluded trucks and crossovers/SUV’s (since the Toyota RAV4 EV is the only electric vehicle offered in those categories, and then only in California) then electric vehicle market share turned out to be:

– about 1% of passenger cars (again, excluding trucks and x-overs/SUV’s)

– about 2% of passenger cars with a base MSRP of $20,000 or more

– about 3% of passenger cars with a base MSRP of $25,000 or more

And way up in the nosebleed section of the luxury car market – where “high” might not just refer to the prices* – Tesla got about 17% of the passenger car market among vehicles costing $62,400 and up. (Tesla’s Model S costs $62,400 after U.S. federal incentives.)

Name-dropping Edwards Deming

One fun aspect of the article was that I was able to weave in references to W. Edwards Deming, the Godfather of statistical quality control. It’s the latest addition to my list of occasionally-Canadian cross-references, including:

– the Innovator’s Dilemma and Kleiber’s Law (both from this article)

– GM’s old philosophy of “a car for every purse and purpose” (here)

– Canada’s on-again/off-again aspirations to annex Turks and Caicos (here)

– and Wayne Gretzky getting traded to the Los Angeles Kings (here)

And the writer’s cut

Verbose babbler that I am – Scrabble players and spelling bee champions alike might say I verge on “logorrhea” — I came in a couple hundred words over target. Or, as I like to think of it, “overachieved”. :)

As a result, the following was originally present just before the Slimming Down U.S. Sales heading.

– – – – – –

As is so often the case for plug-ins, hybrid vehicles offer an apt comparison. In 2012, hybrids claimed about 3.1 percent of the U.S. auto market, and 1.5 percent of the worldwide auto market. (1.2 million of 81.8 million vehicles.)

On the surface, this looks grim – fifteen years after the Prius premiered, hybrids remain in the low single-digit percentages. But better context comes when we focus on Toyota: in 2012, their third-generation hybrid technology was in a full 16 percent of their sales – almost one in every six cars they sold!

This added context helps us understand that bureaucracy, not technology, kept hybrid vehicles marginal: if corporate priorities had been different, there’d be far more hybrids on the roads today.

– – – – –

Fortunately, content is highly recyclable (as many a plagiarist and plagiarism victim is aware) so hopefully I’ll have a chance to deploy the above when I wind up 122 or so words short on an article. :)

– – – – – –

* being a lefty, I’m predictably happy about the fact that the U.S. seems to be easing up on its War on Drugs, which as Matt Taibbi recently noted, is a war waged mainly against the non-wealthy and the non-white.

But it was probably predictable that this would happen, because the winners of the past four Presidential elections were the candidates who’d done cocaine in their youth. (Obama wrote about it in his autobiography, and GWB has avoided making outright denials and was allegedly arrested for possession in 1972.)

The last time someone who’d never used the drug was elected President, Microsoft was king of the world, and Apple was almost bankrupt. Oh, how things change…

If Republicans and Democrats alike have been willing to fund-raise, campaign and vote for candidates who’d done hard drugs, it’s hard to imagine their attitudes towards drugs and drug users wouldn’t soften. And maybe, just maybe, that can lead to legal priorities more focused on prevention/rehabilitation, than on punishment.

Heck, if the U.S. can close enough jails currently crowded with non-violent drug offenders, that might give them a good excuse for that perennially popular bipartisan American activity, lowering taxes! :)

December: a podcast premiere

The nice folks at http://www.thisweekinenergy.tv/ (TWiE) invited me to guest on their podcast on their late November episode, Good News, Bad News, Ugly News. While most of their guests are leading experts in their fields, and I’m just a talkative and reasonably-knowledgeable former fuel cell engineer, I heeded Gore Vidal’s wisdom and agreed. :)

It being the first time my comments were being recorded for posterity (well… outside NSA headquarters, that is) I spent a few hours doing homework, researching the backgrounds of the energy stories we were scheduled to discuss, and refining / rehearsing a few talking points.

And in retrospect, maybe I should’ve gotten some vocal coaching instead. Listening to the podcast after the fact, I was struck by how high my voice sounded. I sounded a bit like Preston Manning, the high-talker who led Canada’s Reform Party (or, as he said it, the Re-foooorm Party) out of the political wilderness and into… well, I guess he led them around in the wilderness for awhile. :)

Fun fact: Preston is the son of long-time Alberta Premier Ernest Manning, who – in a twist that would have given Christopher Hitchens an aneurism – led the province six days a week, then spent Sundays leading the most popular radio show in Alberta: “Back to the Bible Hour”.

Manning may have set the precedent that former professional wrestler and Minnesota Governor (yes, Minnesota Governor) Jesse “the Body” Ventura followed back in 1999 when he guest-refereed a WWF match at their Summerslam pay-per-view while Governor. Ventura dismissed the backlash, arguing to the effect of “I work six days a week; what I do on Sundays is my own business”.

Another thing I discovered while listening the podcast was that the care I took to carefully compose my sentences meant that I wound up speaking those sentences. Clause by clause. Just like Captain Kirk used to do. On the old TV series. Never shall I mock. William Shatner. Again!

GCR

I had a couple pieces go up in GreenCarReports in December – the first being the usual monthly assessment of the Canadian EV market. While these pieces are generally about as exciting to read (and write) as financial statements, I was able to weave in a reference to the fact that – hitting a very rough patch after a string of gold and platinum records in the 1970’s – one of the members of Chicago suggested sarcastically that a recent album had gone “aluminum, maybe plywood”.

Henceforth, I’ll be trying to award an aluminum/plywood medal to the lowest-selling electric vehicle in Canada each month. Maybe one day they can add it as an 8th-place medal to the Olympics. That way, the athletes not in the running for the regular medals can have something to shoot for. :)

Speaking of last place finishes, the gold-o-phile Klippenstein investment account sank like lead this past year. Ah, if only I could shrink our life’s other problems half as effectively… ;)

It was classic: just like last time (late 2008/early 2009) I ran out of investible cash before the market ran out of “down”. There’s probably a lesson to be had somewhere in there, but I haven’t the patience to learn it. :)

My other GreenCarReports article featured some data that Waterloo-based MyCarma had passed along, about the effect of winter temperature on electric vehicle range. (It’s also the most popular thing I’ve written for them — at almost 8,000 page views, it’s as if the entire population of the French island of St. Pierre et Miquelon had read it. Canadians may know it as “that tiny island France owns just off Newfoundland”.)

This was awesomely cool to write, as it gave me the chance to shape the messaging around fairly new data about how EV range suffers in cold weather. Keeping with the Seinfeld references, I termed the phenomenon “range shrinkage”. :)

CT

Lastly, I wrote a piece for CleanTechnica on Ontario KO’ing coal, which earned a re-tweet from Canadian Green Party Leader Elizabeth May. (And a few other folks who don’t merit their own Wikipedia entries. ;) )

On the topic of KO’s, in 2013 Canada’s Liberal Party somehow recovered from Michael Ignatieff’s self-inflicted knockout punch, and ended the year leading in the polls, surpassing both the Conservatives and New Democrats. (The average of recent polls is currently running at 34-27-23.)

And considering how many “please-donate” mailings the Liberals are sending me (a former donor) I’ve got to think they’re for real. Only a few years ago, I practically had to pull a Fry to find out where to address a cheque.

While Stephen Harper’s character-assassins did a fine job on the prior two Liberal leaders, Trudeau is proving a harder target. As Spike Lee might say, “it’s gotta be the hair”. Worse yet for the Prime Minister, the Liberal leader has a well-known charity boxing record: if challenged on his plans to reform the Senate, the son of Trudeau could always turn around and quip:

“Look, I beat Patrick Brazeau into a bloody pulp [in the boxing match]. You think anyone else in the Senate is going to pull any shit after that?”

Heck, given how loose-lipped he is… he just might! ;)

Wiki-immortality!

APSC150 speech

My August Canadian EV car sales stats update went up recently. Which was cool.

Cooler still, I had a chance to wax poetic about sustainability, and my new-found optimism that we’ll avoid the worst of our dystopian horrors. I was invited to be a guest lecturer for an engineering course at UBC (APSC 150) where I had the privilege to slightly shape the minds of about four hundred first-year students. And show them how, here in the first world, #WeAreWhales. (The cryptic comment is described in the slide deck, here.)

Coolest of all, I’ve achieved a Wiki-immortality of sorts! I’m a Wikipedia footnote in the Tesla Model S article! Or, rather, one of my older GreenCarReports columns is. The one describing the vehicle’s Canadian sales figures for the first half of 2013. :)

Wiki Klippenstein

Of course, Wiki’s being the infinitely editable sites that they are, my fame will well be fleeting. Which brings to mind to Hindu parable of Indra and the ants, whose punchline was once majestically translated as “former Indra’s, all“. :) For all our works and purpose, pride and presence, in time’s great fulness we are all returned into the Void from whence we came.

Passing Gas – EV’s now outnumber gas stations, in America

2012-chevrolt-volt-gas-station-advert_100364597_m

My latest piece is up on GreenCarReports, here. It’s where I sourced the photo from. :)

And yes, putting “Passing Gas” in the title was deliberate. Hey, it’s catchy!

From what I can tell, electric vehicles also outnumber gas stations in Japan as well. Alas, Canadians are somewhat behind our American and Japanese (and no doubt, Norwegian) friends in this regard – from the data I’ve been able to collect in my database, we only have about 2000 plug-in electric vehicles versus about 13,000 gas stations.  You can’t win ’em all.

…but as long as you can win Olympic Gold in ice hockey, by and large, the losses everywhere else are largely tolerable.  ;)

Number one!

Clearly, people really enjoyed the Canadian Tesla sales stats I was able to pull up via vehicle registration records. The article is now number one for the week!  An article on Canadian stats topping an American website’s “recently popular” list.  How about that!  :)

Tesla article - number one

I noticed that the good folks at the InsideEV’s website subsequently offered year-to-date Tesla sales estimates for Canada, perhaps deriving them from my numbers? ;) They even mentioned vehicle registration data in a recent article! Nice to think I may have helped pioneer that methodology in the EV blogosphere, even if it’s of infinitesimal consequence (or should that be infinite inconsequence?).

That said, InsideEV’s does great work — I read them daily, and have learned a lot from their posts. It’d just be nice if they could throw a bone of credit now and then. :) Heck, I unabashedly cite goodcarbadcar.net and others as the sources for the data in my public-access EV spreadsheet!

Tesla sales in Canada, Jan-May 2013

My GreenCarReports article on Tesla Model S sales in Canada this year has been popular enough to reach second-place in GCR’s “Most Popular this week” sidebar.

Tesla Model S article popularity

Very cool, and almost certainly indicative of the fact that Tesla fans are starved for sales data!  After all, the company is about as forthcoming with monthly sales statistics as old Howard Hughes was, with public appearances. Too old a reference?  How about Thomas Pynchon?  Too obscure?

Well, they’re about as willing to disclose that information, as current Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is, of letting his MP’s speak freely. When his most recent cabinet was announced, the media was given… pre-recorded video commentary from each of the lucky lawmakers.

Unfortunately, all this message control came to naught, as it was discovered that “enemies lists” had been compiled for each new Minister, to help them in their governance. No doubt the Harper Government(TM) wishes it could give its leakers the “American treatment”…

May 14 – British Columbia provincial election

Here’s to hoping that any and all British Columbians reading this, take their opportunity to vote.

In the broad sweep of history, with precious few examples, democracy is a fairly new phenomenon — not unlike the concept of retirement — so it would be a pity to waste the opportunity for political involvement, that almost none of one’s ancestors enjoyed.  Unless they were royals, nobles or conniving courtiers — but how likely is that, really?  Just once, I’d love to hear about a reincarnation party where everyone dressed up as subsistence farmers, existing tenuously on the precipitous edge of famine, disease or other calamity.  Indeed, that situation continues to exist for many unfortunate people, in many unfortunate parts of the world today.

 

The Vote-Signal