(originally written Oct 21, 2011. Part of Great Upload of 2013.)
It seems like the financial markets will have an “upwards bias” for the next few months, despite the circling-the-drain quality of the macroeconomic picture, which inspired this magazine cover from the Oct 1 issue of The Economist magazine.
If there’s anything I’ve learned over my years watching stocks (and, to be perfectly honest, there isn’t ;) ) it’s to do the opposite of what The Economist says on its cover, a phenomenon known as the magazine cover indicator:
- you’d’ve tripled your money in Ford in about two years by buying them after the July 2009 “Detroitosaurus Rex” issue
- a couple months prior to that, the cover story “The Jobs Crisis” coincided with the bottom of the stock markets
- of course, their timing is occasionally off; they did an oil-barrel cover in May 2008, and the price increased several percent into July before plummeting.