Tag Archives: Canada

May 14 – British Columbia provincial election

Here’s to hoping that any and all British Columbians reading this, take their opportunity to vote.

In the broad sweep of history, with precious few examples, democracy is a fairly new phenomenon — not unlike the concept of retirement — so it would be a pity to waste the opportunity for political involvement, that almost none of one’s ancestors enjoyed.  Unless they were royals, nobles or conniving courtiers — but how likely is that, really?  Just once, I’d love to hear about a reincarnation party where everyone dressed up as subsistence farmers, existing tenuously on the precipitous edge of famine, disease or other calamity.  Indeed, that situation continues to exist for many unfortunate people, in many unfortunate parts of the world today.

 

The Vote-Signal

 

Plug-in electric car sales in Canada, January 2013 (via GreenCarReports)

My column on plug-in car sales in Canada for January 2013, is now up at GreenCarReports.  Since it’s hard to write ~600 words about sales statistics in the very small Canadian market, I discuss how Quebec — not B.C.! — is the leading province for plug-in vehicle adoption, and reasons why this might be the case.  You can think of me as being “unpaid by the word”.  ;)

For Canada as a whole, the Chevy Volt retained a narrow lead, with the Nissan LEAF and Toyota Prius plug-in a close second and third — among reporting manufacturers.  Which is to say, if we ignore Tesla, which doesn’t divulge monthly sales statistics.  (They’ll be forced to cough up some numbers on Feb 20, though, in their quarterly conference call!)

Tesla may prove to have had the best-selling plug-in car in both Canada and the U.S. in January.  They claimed to have been producing about 400 vehicles a week in January, which would’ve been good for 1600 vehicles.  If true, they very well could have overtaken the Volt in January in both the U.S. (1140) and Canada (44).

When the Tesla results come out, I’ll update my public-access spreadsheet of EV sales statistics, which also contains the sales stats referenced in the aforementioned GreenCarReports column.

Plug-in electric car sales in Canada, 2012 (via GreenCarReports)

My new adventures as a Canadian correspondent for GreenCarReports.com begin with this post.  Readers are encouraged to show them some love.  :)

My ongoing efforts to track Canadian EV sales figures (and those of a few other countries) remain visible here.

EV stats for British Columbia (2012)

The kind people at CEV for BC sent over some statistics on Clean Energy Vehicle rebates issued by the provincial government.

While the CEV rebates were available for electric, natural gas, and fuel cell vehicles, my understanding is that the rebates break down as follows:

– 308x EV’s

– 0 NGV’s

– 0 FCV’s

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Given the limited infrastructure and product offerings (apart from a natural gas Honda Civic, I’m unaware of other methane-based production vehicles) it’s unsurprising that natural gas vehicles didn’t capture any rebates.  Much the same can be said for fuel cell cars.  In contrast, almost everyone in Canada is connected to a grid, and all the major auto companies are making plug-ins, if in modest quantities.

It’s also worth noting that natural gas is becoming more common in the trucking industry (where centralized fueling depots provide sufficient infrastructure) but that the above rebates only apply to “light-duty” passenger vehicles.

More after the jump!

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Norquist knee-capped by Koch-backed “Shift Disturbers”

<hat tip to Jack C for the titular prhase!>

Well, it looks like Grover Norquist’s support for a carbon tax shift last Monday (Nov 12) lasted as long as a mayfly.  By the time Tuesday (Nov 13) rolled around, he was back to opposing it, and likening government to a tapeworm.

I suppose it’s a brave thing to say, considering that the highly-trained, armed professional soldiers of the US military (a wholly-owned subsidiary of the US government) probably don’t like being likened to intestinal parasites.

Norquist has infamously said he’s wanted to shrink government small enough that it could be drowned in a bathtub, like a kitten.  So I suppose his move to tapeworms represents progress of some sort.

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Newsflash: Canadian PM’s American Idol supports Stephane Dion-esque carbon tax shift

Note: for non-Canadian readers (or, indeed for Canadian readers who don’t follow politics) Stephane Dion was the milquetoast who led the Liberal Party of Canada to its then-worst-ever federal election result in 2008.  He ran on a campaign of a carbon tax shift (“The Green Shift“), for which the Conservative Party mocked and savaged him.

We’ll get to Stephen Harper and his erstwhile idol after the jump, but a bit of background discussion is necessary to provide a proper context…

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On Theft and Punishment

(originally written May 5, uploaded July 29)

Wal-Mart executives were recently accused of bribing foreign officials, a serious offence under US law. Fortunately for them, if history is any guide (and in a justice system which highly values past precedent, it so often is, isn’t it?) no one will go to jail. By and large, white-collar crime goes lightly punished, one of many possible reasons being that wealthy people in deep-pocketed organizations can muster all-star legal lineups in their defense. Perhaps we could call this the “law of the jingle”. ;)

In yet another example of how the world is different for the 99%, punishments for “blue-collar” crime tend to pick up the slack. More troublingly for our “equal before the law” ethos, many soon-to-be-prisoners are represented by overworked court-appointed lawyers, who can’t devote as much time to cases as privately-hired counterparts. One wonders how different things would be if we all shared public defenders, the way we share public healthcare…!

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As they do in so many fields, our southern cousins seem to lead the way in judicial asymmetry. In an infamous case several years ago, a repeat offender tried twice to steal videotapes from Kmart — nine movies worth about $150. (Compare this to the expansive music and video collections your, ahem, cousin acquired through file-sharing.) These being his third and fourth offences, and California having a “three strikes” law, the thief got two consecutive twenty-five year prison sentences: a half-century in the slammer. While he had committed other offences in the past, this brings to mind how in Les Miserables, Jean Valjean was jailed five years for stealing a loaf of bread!

Bearing in mind that it costs California about $50,000 to incarcerate someone for a year, one could say the state is “investing” $2.5 million to keep this fellow behind bars. Riffing on the economic theory that people always act in their self-interest, it would seem the criminal justice system thinks it would be even more expensive for society to leave him on the streets.

On the other end of the spectrum, executives at brokerage firm MF Global recently stole $1.6 billion from customer accounts, most of it in the “chaos” of the final days as the company went under. Because as you know, when it gets busy, banks only balance their books to the nearest billion. ;) (“Your honour, we were moving that money into so many different offshore tax-haven shell company accounts we honestly lost track of what went where. And what with all the shredding… wait, you’re not buying it?”) Unfortunately, since sentencing probably won’t happen for a few years, we’ll have to turn to older examples for comparative purposes.

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About ten years ago, two top executives at Tyco stole $600 million from the company, eventually earning sentences of up to 25 years each. Pulling out ye olde calculator app, each Tyco exec got a maximum of 25 years for $300 million, or roughly one day’s jail time per $33,000. Grading on the curve for the failed Kmart thief, he would’ve gotten six and a half minutes, a bit less than the time it takes to sing “Hey Jude”.

Scaling the other way, each Tyco exec successfully stole two million times as much as the Kmart felon tried to, so in a parallel universe they both would’ve gotten one hundred million years in prison. By comparison, the dinosaurs only lasted a hundred and sixty. Forget watching paint dry, they could’ve watched oil form! (And if they had, no doubt they’d shake their heads at our tar sands extraction, muttering “what are they thinking? That junk needs to cook another million years at least!”)

It would be unfair to blame the justice system for these iniquities, because the root of the problem is probably more fundamental to our human nature. (Similarly, blaming religion for all the terrible things done in its name overlooks the fact that we’re really, really good at finding excuses to kill each other.) Many societies distinguish between higher-esteemed and lower-esteemed communities — you may recall from school that in feudal Europe, the aristocracy were called the nobles, and the serfs, villains. Nowadays we have respectable businessmen and impoverished ethnic minorities. And sentencing sure seems to depend on whether the accused is subconsciously classified as “one of us” or “The Other”.

We can see hints of this in the difficulties of the earliest Christians in the city of Rome. Europe having been the “home base” of Christianity for so long, it’s easy to forget that the first Christians arrived there from the East. Community leaders were darker-skinned folks, probably impoverished and illiterate, who didn’t speak Latin (though some might’ve known Greek). They had newfangled ideas that irritated the more respectable members of their own synagogues, like worshipping a man who’d been executed as a common criminal. And they were rumoured to’ve been cannibals.* They were such a perfect “Other” that Nero simply could not have found a better scapegoat for the Great Fire of Rome, if he’d told his people to try. Heck, it wouldn’t be surprising if he did…!

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It’s also plausible that the thought of retail theft (purse-snatchings, stick-ups) triggers a fight-or-flight response in us, and accordingly, demands for harsh punishment. In contrast, wholesale thefts (diddling the business books and similar corruptions) tend to be banal actions involving computers — hardly adrenaline-pumping stuff. This may also help explain why they’re treated less severely, despite involving much larger sums. A recent example of the latter is the “robo-signing” scandal in the US, where banks have been shown to’ve foreclosed on thousands of homes they did not in fact have title to, then tried to falsify documents after the fact, and now seem poised to escape with fines representing a small fraction of their winnings.

This explanation unfortunately turns into the logical pretzel that if a society punishes (theft of $100 + threat of violence) more severely than (theft of $1,000,000’s), when you balance the equations, the courts treat one threat of violence as the equivalent of millions of dollars. Which just seems odd; it almost comes across as incentive for wannabe white-collar crooks.

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No doubt all these issues have been addressed with careful nuance and subtlety in the Conservative Canadian government’s recently-passed crime bill. It is an omnibus bill, after all. ;) It’s also encouraging that they’ve shown such restraint with their opponents, instead of caricaturing them as “hijacking radicals”. That would be a subtle attempt to link environmentalists with the 9/11 terrorists; to their credit, thus far they’ve kept “hijacking” and “radical” in separate sentences. ;)

To offer other credit where it’s due, much of the above was influenced by The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Prison, a book I read at university. After getting mugged. While I was pretty much a cookie-cutter law-and-order type beforehand, it raised some formidable questions about why we choose to focus most of our crime-fighting on the bottom of the pyramid, instead of the top. (Admittedly, having the Avengers do a forensic audit of Conrad Black’s dealings, would make for a Very. Boring. Movie.)

The book’s now in its ninth edition, which means that even if the book it’s wrong, it’s pervasively wrong — not unlike today’s standard economic models. ;) The bottom line is that, because of it and other tomes, I’m one of the few people who ever got less conservative on crime, after being a victim of it! How’s that for unexpected? :)

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* some Christian traditions hold that the communion bread and wine literally becomes Jesus’ body and blood when it is consumed; others treat this metaphorically. If even one Christian proselytizer were to explain this to a local Roman without proper context, you could see how claims of cannibalism would arise…

The to-may-to, to-mah-to of economic statistics

(written June 28, uploaded July 16)

There was an alarming report out a couple weeks ago alleging that China was vastly underreporting its emissions, because the coal consumption reported by the Chinese national government was smaller than the sum of consumption totals reported by various Chinese provinces. Purportedly, the Communist Party didn’t want to reveal to the outside world just how much pollution it’s emitting, trying to raise the country’s standard of living.

This was followed the other day by a report that coal inventories in Chinese ports are at record highs (in other words, it’s not being burnt as fast as it’s being imported). The theory is that Chinese provinces have been overreporting electricity production to meet national targets for economic growth. If this is the case, then the national government is correct to apply a “fudge factor” and report lower production totals than the sum total of the numbers they’re given!

In light of the high coal inventories, I’d side with the national government on this one, and assume China is slowing down. And since China consumes so much of everything (urbanizing thirty million people per year takes a lot of material!) a slowdown there would drag down prices of most of the resources Canada is so good at exporting raw and unfinished — lumber, metal ores, bitumen, and so forth. Sigh — it’s as if we suffer from a lingering “economic colony complex”…

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A Chinese slowdown would exacerbate the problems our Albertan friends are facing: the price of oil is already sagging to levels which threaten the economic viability of (some) new tar sands projects. This Globe article lists a consultant study saying $80 per barrel is needed for a variety of projects to break even. As I write this, the price of the West Texas Intermediate Crude (“WTIC”) benchmark is $79. And as the Globe article notes, our countrymen aren’t even getting this much, since oil from North Dakota is clogging south-flowing pipelines in the US, forcing Albertans (who are upstream) to sell at a discount. Selling unrefined bitumen would incur a further discount.

And it just gets worse for our Calgarian cousins/rivals: US oil consumption peaked six years ago, and is set to keep falling. Not only are fewer teens getting licenses, and fewer total miles being driven per year, but those miles are being driven in more fuel-efficient vehicles, as the gas guzzlers of the cheap-oil-era early 2000’s get traded in for more fuel efficient ones. And while electric cars won’t displace much oil demand in the near term, some truck fleets are beginning to switch to natural gas — and trucking represents a huge 12% of US oil consumption! Not all of them will switch, and natural gas will get more expensive again, but the net effect will be that US oil consumption is likely to keep… on… falling, like a Japanese stock market index. (Incidentally, kudos to our friends at Westport for persisting in that natural-gas-vehicle market long enough to get to this tipping point; it’s a good lesson for us fuel-cell folks to learn from.)

Without a path to Asia, Alberta would be stuck selling its oil into a declining market — and that would make it impossible for them to shift the heart of Canadian power westwards, as has been their dream for decades. It’s a 180-degree turn from the message everyone has told our neighbours for the past several years, namely that they faced unprecedented wealth. With stagnant US and European demand, the only way for the oil patch to keep those dreams alive is to force pipelines through BC. Which is what the Prime Minister is agitating for, with the determination you’d expect from the son of an Exxon accountant. (Harper’s dad worked for Exxon’s Canadian arm, Imperial Oil / Esso.)

If we assume those coal mountains in China mean the country is slowing down, the oil price is likely to drift lower in 2013 (commodity trader group-think suggests a bounce up in the near term; not sure what Nostradamus’ take is). A lower oil price would probably mean further gnashing of teeth and scapegoating of “BC radicals” in Calgary* though the root cause would of course be that the market is a fickle god: it giveth, and it taketh away. Not infrequently taking its cues from those godless communists. ;)

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* Misplaced anger also applies to the 1970s’ National Energy Policy. While Trudeau reduced the oilpatch boom, he didn’t actually cause the bust; in fact, when oil prices dropped in the early 80’s, Alberta got more-than-market-rates for its oil. The guys who caused the real pain in Calgary were the Saudis, who turned the spigots on enough to drive the price of oil so low, they were basically the only ones making money. (They were punishing other OPEC members for exceeding their production quotas. Every other oil producer in the world, became collateral damage.) More recently, Alberta’s Wildrose Party seems convinced that over-regulation is what caused a slowdown in bitumen development in the past few years, neatly overlooking the Massive Financial Crisis of 2008/09 that caused the oil to drop to about $40 per barrel, before gradually floating back to the low $100’s, from which it has resumed sagging.