Tag Archives: electric car

British Columbia hits 1,000 EV’s (and gov’t drops support)

image of Tesla Model S’s at a rally, from Consumer Reports

 

British Columbians have now purchased more than 1,000 plug-in electric vehicles. Add in low-speed neighbourhood electric vehicles and owner conversions, and the number will be a bit higher.

As of Jan 31, 2014 Polk research (now a division of IHS) had tracked 912 plug-in electric vehicle registrations in BC, representing about 1/6 of all PHEV registrations in Canada to date. British Columbia has about 1/8 of Canada’s population, so the numbers are largely in line with what we’d expect from the demographics.

Polk’s data doesn’t include the Toyota Prius Plug-in, Ford C-Max Energi or Ford Fusion Energi, however. Vehicle registrations for these plug-ins, is lumped in with sales of the regular hybrid versions. And through the end of 2013, these three models enjoyed Canadian sales of 594 units.

Assuming that BC represented 1/6 of these sales (being 99 vehicles) then British Columbia’s plug-in population has hit four figures. At the end of January, sales would have been on the order of 912+99 = 1011. And that doesn’t include any Prius Plug-in, C-Max Energi or Fusion Energi sales in the province in January.

Add probable sales in February to the mix, and we should be comfortably above the 1,000-car mark.

As always, my spreadsheet tracking plug-in sales in Canada and the U.S., and other related data, is at: www.tinyurl.com/CanadaEVSales

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Passing Gas – EV’s now outnumber gas stations, in America

2012-chevrolt-volt-gas-station-advert_100364597_m

My latest piece is up on GreenCarReports, here. It’s where I sourced the photo from. :)

And yes, putting “Passing Gas” in the title was deliberate. Hey, it’s catchy!

From what I can tell, electric vehicles also outnumber gas stations in Japan as well. Alas, Canadians are somewhat behind our American and Japanese (and no doubt, Norwegian) friends in this regard – from the data I’ve been able to collect in my database, we only have about 2000 plug-in electric vehicles versus about 13,000 gas stations.  You can’t win ’em all.

…but as long as you can win Olympic Gold in ice hockey, by and large, the losses everywhere else are largely tolerable.  ;)

The Innovator’s Dilemma, Toyota edition

280px-1st_Toyota_Prius_--_07-28-2011

This car — yes, this car — has impeded Toyota’s electric efforts

My post on how The Innovator’s Dilemma explains why Toyota lags in electric vehicles — and how Kleiber’s Law explains there’s nothing for them to worry about (yet), is now up on GreenCarReports.

While the Tesla stats were cooler to have dug up, and will probably enjoy a broader readership, this particular piece was more gratifying to write; the Innovator’s Dilemma is a fairly well-known concept in business circles, but there’s a tendency to incorrectly think that all industries get changed and disrupted quickly. To adapt from yesterday’s screed, the world of software changes a lot more quickly than the world of stuff.

And Kleiber’s Law probably (partially) explains why.

The GCR article had to be edited down, and some of the rejected detritus included this little comparison of hybrid and EV adoption rates below. Think of it as rounding out the “complete and unabridged” version of the article.

Note: I thought electric vehicles would have roughly the same adoption rate as early hybrids, figuring that greater sales due to a broader product selection from various manufacturers, would be offset by lower sales due to the higher sticker price. Boy, was I wrong. :)

Though I might claim that gov’t rebates “distorted the market” (in a very positive way, mind you) I’m not so egotistical as to be unable to admit to mistakes, so I’ll file that for future learnings… after taking this quick religious diversion. :)

A quick religious diversion

On the topic of “complete and unabridged” versions, people who peruse the Christian scriptures (the “New Testament”) will notice that the Gospel of Mark is a lot shorter than the Gospels of Matthew and of Luke. This is most likely due to the fact that back in the day, there were two standard scroll lengths: a short one, and a long one. Kind of like how we have letter paper (8.5″ x 11″) and legal paper (8.5″ x 14″) today.

Mark, chronologically the first of the three to be written, was written on a short scroll, and Matthew and Luke wrote on the longer ones.

A more interesting case is that of the book, Acts of the Apostles, commonly credited to Luke — whose name almost certainly wasn’t Luke, because people tended to assign famous works, to more famous people. The same tends to happen in our modern era — for instance, this British revocation of the American Declaration of Independence  is commonly attributed to John Cleese, though he didn’t write it.

Acts exists in two commonly-circulated versions, one about 10% longer than the other. While this is less impressive “genetic variation” than one finds in other texts — the Buddhist Dhammapada has more variants, possibly because it was translated into multiple languages early on, before anyone with overarching authority tried to establish a “canonical” version, as happened in Christianity. There, someone identified by scholars as “The Ecclesiastical Redactor” (possibly Polycarp of Smyrna) created a standard edition fairly early on. There are many reasons for hypothesizing this, not the least of which is that essentially all manuscripts available to us share the same abbreviations of key terms (from memory, Theos is abbreviated Ts and Iesous is abbreviated Is).

All of which is a phenomenally long-winded, trivia-filled way of saying that the text appended below would form the “10% longer” version of my GreenCarReports article.  It originally was included before the paragraph “The Innovator’s Dilemma – why Toyota’s tepid on electrics”.

Hybrid history and the plug-in path

Plug-in electric vehicle enthusiasts have exchanged many a high-five over the fact that in the United States and probably elsewhere, plug-in adoption rates have thus far surpassed hybrid adoption rates. Here again, context is valuable.

In the first four years of hybrid availability in the United States (2000-2003) oil was cheap, and consumers could choose between three hybrid vehicles — two small (the Prius and the Civic Hybrid) and one even smaller (the Insight). These were sold by Toyota and Honda, who shared about 17 percent of the automotive market between them.

In retrospect, it’s unsurprising that electric vehicles are being adopted faster, given the greater awareness of our environmental challenges, higher oil prices improving the cost/benefit equation, government incentives, and — perhaps most crucially of all — widespread automaker participation.  

By the four-year anniversary of the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt’s December 2010 retail debut, ten carmakers will offering production plug-in electrics stateside: BMW, Daimler (Smart), Ford, GM, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Tesla, Toyota and VW.  (Fiat is excluded from the preceding list, as the 500e is a compliance car available only in California.)

These automakers control about 75 percent of the US auto market, and by December 2014 their product offerings will range all the way from subcompact commuter cars to SUV‘s. To adapt Alfred Sloan’s old phrase, there’s now a plug-in “for every purse and purpose”. Fierce competition has already resulted in lower prices, which will only accelerate sales volume, which will itself improve economies of scale.

Number one!

Clearly, people really enjoyed the Canadian Tesla sales stats I was able to pull up via vehicle registration records. The article is now number one for the week!  An article on Canadian stats topping an American website’s “recently popular” list.  How about that!  :)

Tesla article - number one

I noticed that the good folks at the InsideEV’s website subsequently offered year-to-date Tesla sales estimates for Canada, perhaps deriving them from my numbers? ;) They even mentioned vehicle registration data in a recent article! Nice to think I may have helped pioneer that methodology in the EV blogosphere, even if it’s of infinitesimal consequence (or should that be infinite inconsequence?).

That said, InsideEV’s does great work — I read them daily, and have learned a lot from their posts. It’d just be nice if they could throw a bone of credit now and then. :) Heck, I unabashedly cite goodcarbadcar.net and others as the sources for the data in my public-access EV spreadsheet!

Tesla sales in Canada, Jan-May 2013

My GreenCarReports article on Tesla Model S sales in Canada this year has been popular enough to reach second-place in GCR’s “Most Popular this week” sidebar.

Tesla Model S article popularity

Very cool, and almost certainly indicative of the fact that Tesla fans are starved for sales data!  After all, the company is about as forthcoming with monthly sales statistics as old Howard Hughes was, with public appearances. Too old a reference?  How about Thomas Pynchon?  Too obscure?

Well, they’re about as willing to disclose that information, as current Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is, of letting his MP’s speak freely. When his most recent cabinet was announced, the media was given… pre-recorded video commentary from each of the lucky lawmakers.

Unfortunately, all this message control came to naught, as it was discovered that “enemies lists” had been compiled for each new Minister, to help them in their governance. No doubt the Harper Government(TM) wishes it could give its leakers the “American treatment”…

April 2013 Canadian plug-in electric vehicle sales

My April update on Canadian plug-in car sales stats in Canada is now up at GreenCarReports.  The Volt’s title reign continues — while the Prius Plug-in Prius dropped to fourth place!

As noted in the article, I think some of the Prius Plug-in’s challenges come from the fact that it’s a plug-in option on a pre-existing vehicle.  Early adopters of new technology probably have a bit of a “peacock” complex and so want their conspicuous consumption to be obvious to others.  If so (and I’m pretty sure it is so!) then they’d prefer to buy an electric car with a distinctive silhouette than a plug-in retrofitted on an existing car model.

People who follow cars can probably make out a Tesla, Volt, or LEAF from a fair distance.  But when it comes to the Toyota Prius Plug-in, Ford Fusion Energi, Ford C-Max Energi and others, they’d pretty much have to be in bumper-to-bumper gridlock before noticing the different badges, or the extra port to accommodate the charging outlet.

Oh, and a belated congratulations to Tesla for their Model S’s record-tying Consumer Reports rating (it was the second-ever vehicle to score 99/100, after some Lexus model), their sales achievement and new-found profitability.  I’ll need to update the American figures in my EV sales database!

– – – – –

Meanwhile, work on the theatre-play-turned-graphic-novel continues.  Considering that I’ve been working on this for the past fifteen (!!) or so years, I must be well past ten thousand hours and on my way to one hundred!  Which, by Malcolm Gladwell’s logic (he popularized the “ten thousand hours to greatness” meme) clearly means that I’m now Great — at spending time on this Shakespearean samurai story.  :)

But wow, fifteen years…!  Heck, the siege of Troy only lasted ten!  :)

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Plug-in electric car sales in Canada, January 2013 (via GreenCarReports)

My column on plug-in car sales in Canada for January 2013, is now up at GreenCarReports.  Since it’s hard to write ~600 words about sales statistics in the very small Canadian market, I discuss how Quebec — not B.C.! — is the leading province for plug-in vehicle adoption, and reasons why this might be the case.  You can think of me as being “unpaid by the word”.  ;)

For Canada as a whole, the Chevy Volt retained a narrow lead, with the Nissan LEAF and Toyota Prius plug-in a close second and third — among reporting manufacturers.  Which is to say, if we ignore Tesla, which doesn’t divulge monthly sales statistics.  (They’ll be forced to cough up some numbers on Feb 20, though, in their quarterly conference call!)

Tesla may prove to have had the best-selling plug-in car in both Canada and the U.S. in January.  They claimed to have been producing about 400 vehicles a week in January, which would’ve been good for 1600 vehicles.  If true, they very well could have overtaken the Volt in January in both the U.S. (1140) and Canada (44).

When the Tesla results come out, I’ll update my public-access spreadsheet of EV sales statistics, which also contains the sales stats referenced in the aforementioned GreenCarReports column.